NLL Insider

 What a great way to start the NLL season. The Rocky Mountain Rivals, the Colorado Mammoth facing the Calgary Roughnecks. These teams have had many monumental battles over the past 5 years. Including the playoffs, they have played each other 15 times, with Colorado winning 8 times to Calgary’s 7.  Its also interesting to note that the only two times they have met in the playoffs, the victor has gone on to win the NLL championship.

Before I give my predictions let me give my disclaimer. Don’t blame me for jinxing your team when I pick you to win.  While no NLL coach  has ever tried to sway me to predict good things for his  team I’ve had some ask me to “dis” their team. Coaches love the “nobody gave us a chance” speech. Over the years I’ve had players thank me for picking them to lose. I thought the Calgary Roughnecks were going to give me a Championship ring in 2004 when I predicted them to lose each week in their playoff run. And please remember when I “pick” a team to win, I am  not “voting for” or “cheering” for that team. Of course I will give you an “I told you so” now and again (I picked Rochester last year) but there is so much parity in the NLL that a coin flip would probably do as well as any “expert”.

On with game 1 of 96. 

Calgary vs Colorado at the Pepsi Center in Denver.

Offense: Colorado has the leader and superstar Gavin Prout. Calgary has Tracey Kelusky. Colorado has sniper Dan Carey, Calgary has Lewis Ratcliff. Colorado has the outside gun of Brian Langtry while Calgary has Kaleb Toth. Colorado has talented young shooters Jamie Shewchuk , Nedad Gajic and Matt Brown while Calgary has Scott Ranger, Jeff Shattler and Kelly Hall. Colorado has added 13-year veteran (and former Roughneck) Jason Wulder with 200 career goals. Calgary has added 10-year veteran Curt Malowsky with 214 career goals. I think Calgary is a little deeper but with this much talent it boils down who has a better night.

Defense:  This will be a battle of Colorado’s experience versus Calgary’s youth. On Colorado, Jim  Moss and Pat Coyle have been winners of Defenseman of the Year Award but Coyle is now 38 and 30-year old Moss was sidelined for all but 8 games last year. They are joined by Rich Catton and John Gallant as well as big Bruce Murray from Arizona. Calgary will have a new look to their defense. Gone is Taylor Wray but speedster Andrew McBride is back along with big and tough Ryan McNish.  Kyle Neufeld was with the Roughnecks in 2005 and is back, along with Kyle Couling from Buffalo, and Bruce Codd and Greg Hinman from Arizona. The Carnegie brothers (Mike and Scott) played for coach Cordingly in Brampton and will see floortime as well. I’ll give Calgary’s young “D” a slight edge.

Specialty teams: both teams will have great power plays. Colorado will be strengthened by the addition of Jason Wulder and Calgary will be better with Curt Malawsky and Kelly Hall (who led the NLL in power play goals in 2005 with Minnesota).

Man short: Although Colorado had the 2^nd worst man short in the league last year, I expect them to be solid if their veterans stay healthy. It’s usually takes longer for a man short unit to gel with new players so I don’t expect short man to be strength early in the season for Calgary.  The bottom line is that both teams will be stronger on power than on man short. Staying away from penalties is critical. No edge here.

Goaltending: when healthy, Gee Nash and Steve Dietrich are top 3 in the league. Nash had some health concerns late last year and even though Dietrich has had some knee problems throughout his career, he is one of the few goaltenders in this league that can give his team the feeling of invincibility.  I give the edge to Calgary for this game.

Coaches: Both teams have had coaching changes. In Colorado  Bob McMahon and Bob Hamley, who  have been together forever (Albany, Arizona) and have led their teams to the finals 3 times, will replace the departed Gary Gait. In Calgary Troy Cordingly is a rookie NLL coach but has put in plenty of time as an assistant in Buffalo and as a head coach in Brampton. He brings with him Terry Sanderson who was the head coach in Toronto when they won their last championship in 2005 and has coached with Troy in Buffalo and Brampton. While the Mammoth coaches will try to carry on with minimal upheaval, the Calgary’s coaches want to shake up a team that has been complacent since winning their championship 4 years ago. One might give Colorado a slight edge here but it is a tough assignment to replace the easygoing legend Gary Gait on a team that doesn’t seem to need a shakeup.

My Prediction:

Historically, the Roughnecks have never been intimidated by the boisterous crowds in Colorado. (Calgary is 3 and 3 in Denver.) Home floor advantage is not an issue. While the Roughnecks might be trying to fly under the radar, they could possibly be the most talented team in the NLL aside from Rochester. The fact that there are so many new faces should play to their advantage as every player is fighting to impress the new coaching staff. Calgary will take this game in a close one.

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