Fantasy Fix: Draft Preview

With the season having officially gotten underway this past weekend in Denver, and the thrill of the New Year just setting in as well, it’s time to get down to the real business at hand.

I am of course discussing NLL Fantasy.

Like everyone else, I’m excited that the league is back on and am looking forward to personally witnessing plenty of rivalries, hard hits and non-stop action!

All great, but who’s kidding who? This year I’ll be watching as much of the NLL as possible so that I can assert my fantasy dominance over my fellow IL comrades.

They won’t know what hit ‘em.

Where to start? Where to start? Oh yes, with the absolute locks.

Barring injury, these handful of guys will be this year’s elite of the elite. If your team is going to have any chance at Monday morning bragging rights, and eventual fantasy glory, you MUST make one the cornerstone of your fantasy franchise.

So without further ado, here’s my best advice on taking the reigns in your live fantasy draft, and/or setting your pre-draft list.

The No-Brainer:

1. John Grant, Jr. (ROC)– The LaDanian Tomlinson of fantasy lacrosse, this guy is about as good as they get. In fact, “best-ever” has been thrown out more than once after he finally got over the professional title hump, going on to win three in a row. The reigning MVP averaged a devastating 7 points per game through the regular season and playoffs in ’07 (6.5 PPG through his eight-year NLL career), and has shown nothing close to any sign of slowing down.

The Rest of the Top-8:

2. John Tavares (BUF)– The all-time points leader, and soon to be all-time goals leader, has reached the century mark in points four times in his illustrious 16-year career with the Bandits, including 2007 (103). He is generally good for triple digits in loose balls as well. If Buffalo is going to be a championship threat, which they definitely will, then he will have to again bear a lot of the offensive load. The injury to the team’s key off-season acquisition, Sean Greenhalgh, will also redirect more scoring opportunities back to Tavares as well.

3. Dan Dawson (POR)– Ranked in the Top-7 in points for the last three seasons, Dawson broke out for the best statistical year of his career (107 points), leading Arizona to last year’s championship game. Dawning new threads in Portland in 2008, he will undoubtedly be their go-to guy offensively and will have plenty of chances. If Portland happens to tank again this season, Dawson will unfortunately go down with the ship. But I’m banking that the Jax have a much-improved year with his offensive prowess now in the line-up – even if it’s only for a year.

4. Lewis Ratcliff (CGY)– Like Dawson, Ratcliff also recorded his best statistical year so far (104 points), and was one regular season goal off of Grant’s league-leading 51. He tallied seven points (2, 5) in the season opener against what should turn out to be a pretty stingy Colorado defense, and will be the team’s leader on offense once more. With so many offensive threats in their rotation, the ball will have to be shared significantly, but there should be a lot of goals and assists to go around on their roster, and he should be the largest benefactor of them all.

5. Shawn Williams (ROC)– Grant, Jr.’s left-hand man, Williams will again have a tremendous season statistically. In four seasons with the K‘hawks, Williams has never scored fewer than 80 points, and is coming off of his best postseason in terms of offensive output yet, with 19 points (6, 13). When Grant gets doubled or tripled, he’s where Rochester will look for production. On top of that, 89 power play points (41, 48) in the last three regular seasons is only 10 off of Grant’s pace.

6. Gavin Prout (COL)– 3 assists in the home opener is certainly below what we normally expect out of Prout, but because every team has gotten better and better with league contraction, the ball will have to be spread even more. This will ultimately mean fewer points all around. That said, this guy has proven time and time again that he can put the team on his back and get it done when necessary. He’s hit 90 regular season points twice, and has never been below 70 in his six-year career. His seventh season will be no different once the Mammoth start firing on all offensive cylinders.

7. Colin Doyle (SJS)– Much has been made of the blockbuster deal that involved him last year, but now that he is all settled in, and has even more help on a young and intriguing Stealth squad, his numbers could be even better. And that’s hard to imagine, considering he still recorded 81 (22, 59) during the 2007 regular season. His age is a bit of a question, but the same could be said of Tavares, and he’s still yet to plateau. Needless to say, this could be a breakout year for San Jose if Doyle can catch his stride.

8. Josh Sanderson (TOR)– There are probably a few guys you could look at in this eighth spot, but I place my bet on Sanderson because he has been nothing but consistent over his tenured career. Like Doyle, this 10-year vet has shown very few signs of wear. He has a 5.77 points per game average in the last three seasons with Toronto, of which 103 (41, 62) were netted on the power play. Like every other team in the league, the Rock are stacked offensively, but he should have no problems asserting himself as the dominant fish on the food chain that is the depth chart.

Rounding Out the Top-24 (The Next Two Rounds):

9. Scott Evans (ROC)
10. Tracey Kelusky (CGY)
11. Pat Maddalena (NYT)
12. Luke Wiles (SJS)
13. Dan Carey (COL)
14. Blaine Manning (TOR)
15. Shawn Evans (ROC)
16. Ryan Boyle (NYT)
17. Mike Accursi (EDM)
18. Gary Rosyski (SJS)
19. Aaron Wilson (TOR)
20. Casey Powell (NYT)
21. Kaleb Toth (CGY)
22. Jeff Zywicki (SJS)
23. Athan Iannucci (PHI)
24. Ryan Benesch (TOR)

Other General Draft Strategy:

Because the rules of NLL Fantasy dictate an emphasis on offense, your focus when drafting should unquestionably be on the scoring bread and butter of the league – forwards. A solid defenseman or transition player in the later rounds is not a bad selection, but don’t make a habit of it. Players in these positions don’t get their names in the newspaper nearly as often, plus they have to collect 10 loose balls in a game to nab up a single point for your team otherwise.

So all that said, don’t draft a transition man until Round 6 at the earliest, and a defenseman no earlier than Round 8. There are exceptions depending on how your individual draft goes, but make that a point when you enter the draft room.

Top-8 Transition Players:

1. Mark Steenhuis (BUF)
2. Josh Sims (COL)
3. Jim Veltman (TOR)
4. Steve Toll (ROC)
5. Geoff Snider (PHI)
6. Nenad Gajic (COL)
7. Nolan Heavenor (CGY)
8. Chris Driscoll (TOR)

Top-8 Defensemen:

1. Brodie Merrill (POR)
2. Cam Woods (TOR)
3. Ryan Cousins (MIN)
4. Jeff Spano (NYT)
5. Jarett Park (NYT)
6. Chad Thompson (TOR)
7. Stephen Hoar (ROC)
8. Scott Self (CHI)

Goaltending:

The next question to ask is when to take a goalie, or in the case of how NLL Fantasy works, a goaltending unit. For all intents and purposes, the second-stringer of each team won’t be terribly important, but you never know – so keep that in mind.

My suggestion is to not draft any goalies before the fourth round. Per Fantasy rules, no question goaltending is important, but if I have an opportunity to draft a quality second or third-tier forward, or a top goaltending unit, I’m taking the former.

Just so everyone is on the same page:
-Every 3 saves recorded by a goaltender on your defense: +1 point (Thirds are handled as: .3, .7, and 1).
-Every 1 goal allowed by a goaltender on your defense: -1 point.
-Each team may only carry one goaltending unit on their squad at any time…so draft wisely.

The Ranks:

1. San Jose (Cosmo/Bold)
2. Colorado (Nash/Levis)
3. Philadelphia (Blasdell/Preece)
4. Calgary (Dietrich/Avery)
5. Toronto (Watson/Poulin)
6. Rochester (O’Toole/Wetherup)
7. Edmonton (Palidwor/Disher)
8. Minnesota (Patterson/Croswell)
9. Chicago (Miller/Collins)
10. Buffalo (Thompson/Montour)
11. Portland (Eliuk/King)
12. New York (Vinc/Miller)

Closing Notes:

A couple final pieces of advice for you all. In my short, but extensive experience with all fantasy sports, it’s my belief that drafting players on teams that you think will be very good is the route to go. Players on these rosters tend to produce on a larger scale, and beat all forecasts.

That means that if you love Calgary this year, and are down on Buffalo, go with your instinct and take a few risks in that regard. Because in the end, it’s all about the fun of the game and adding just another element of interest to it as a whole.

Oh, and take at least two players in the draft that you genuinely like for no other reason than you think they’re good, or enjoy watching them play. This adds the spirit of why you would put so much time into something like this in the first place. Think rookies like Jordan Hall (NYT), Merrick Thomson (PHI), Craig Point (MIN), Dane Dobbie (CGY) and Frank Resetarits (SJS).

So until next time, this is your fantasy maven signing off. Best of luck to you all in your drafts and take my projected picks for what they’re worth – about two cents.

Fixler played lacrosse at the University of Denver and has been a freelance writer and Inside Lacrosse contributor since graduating from DU in 2006. Email him at kevin.fixler@nllinsider.com.

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