NLL Insider

Note: The NLL made a number of major changes to the stats posted after the game between the Toronto Rock and Chicago Shamrox. The changes greatly affect portions of this article, so read it for what it’s worth. For new stats checkout this link.

Like I mentioned yesterday, even though the Toronto Rock’s power-play looked off the hook on Saturday night, going 7 for 7 against Chicago, the one stat that really jumped out at me was that under all that man-up scoring, they only put together four even-strength goals.

After Blaine Manning tore through Chicago’s gut and tossed one by Brandon Miller at the 49 second mark of the first period, it took a pretty ridiculous 50 minutes of ball for Aaron Wilson to score the Rock’s second five-on-five marker. That’s almost an entire episode of Tyra Banks people!! Or so I hear from Ted Jenner. Dudes a big fan!! Like I’m talking the Tyra Victoria Chapter Fan Club Prez big. And dude flaunts it. He’s not even a little ashamed. To each his own I guess. Who am I to judge?

Anyways, it’s a pretty safe bet, four even strength goals aren’t gonna win you many games in this league. Had the Rock not been perfect on the power-play (another rarity for Toronto or any other team), that 1-0 season start almost surely woulda been inverted to kickoff 08.

Even though guys like Kasey Beirnes chipped in pretty nicely on Saturday night, those four even strengthers (trust me, it’s a word) brought me back to that 04 East Final that saw the Rock just get wrecked by the Buffalo Bandits 19-10 at the ACC.

That loss of course sparked the Sanderson influx into the team and their O’s never been the same since (and Terry, that was in no way meant to be a shot atcha). Sanderson obviously teed up the boys for a slick title run in 05, but since then, the Rock’s O has been on a bit of a decline.

Although I don’t wanna be blamed for jumping the gun after only one game on the board this year, I decided this first installment of Inside the Numbers on NLLInsider.com would breakdown the Rock’s offense over the past three years, the year T shook things up, with an emphasis on their power-play and their growing dependence on it.

Just a heads up, the number seven is gonna be mentioned a lot, so don’t be all, “Man this guy is overusing the number seven,” cuz that’s kinda the point, so deal homie.

First off, that 100% power-play wasn’t the first time in recent years that the Rock tore it up in man-up situations. Although they’d never hit seven, in 05 they went 3 for 3 against Philly and closed out the year going 4 for 4 against Calgary. Unfortunately the digits on nll.com don’t go too far back, but ya gotta think that perfect seven from this past weekend has gotta be one the best perfect nights in franchise history.

That seven from this year’s opener is also only the second time the team has scored that many man-up goals in the past two years (scored seven on 12 chances against Philly last year).

This year’s seven PP goals made up 64% of their total team scoring on the night, by far their highest single game total in the past three years. Only once since the 05 season have the Rock’s PP markers even made-up for more than half their scoring production in a single game. It was during a shoot-out home opener against the Bandits, in a particularly high scoring 05 season, which saw them go 8 for 13 in that 15-13 win over Buffalo.

And when you breakdown each season’s reliance on the power-play, it was coincidently last year that saw the Rock finally touching the 30% mark of total PP goals against their total offensive output. And that’s with three games where their PP unit went ofer (look it up) against Calgary, Edmonton and then again against New York, which kinda makes that 30% even more weighted.

The Rock’s even strength goals have been on a decline over the last three years as well. They went from averaging almost ten per game in 05, to eight in 06 and then seven and change last season. Obviously they’re just racking up four per game this year, but with just that one game under their belts, thinkin’ that number might be a wee bit low (I hope, although four per game would do wonders for proving my point).

There’s two pretty big trends over the past three years (plus one game) that jump out atcha when you’re lookin’ at the numbers. And although both are statistical, when it boils down, both are truly player personnel oriented.

So, first one, their short handed unit. The Rock’s short-man, at least when it comes to scoring, is way, way, way down from that 05 season. The Rock ran the floor real well in 05, scoring 17 man-down goals en route to that Champion’s Cup.

Since then? Even if you double up the last two years, you’d still be a good chunk away from 05’s digits. The Rock have scored just six man-down markers in both 06 and 07 seasons. I’d put money down that Steve Toll and the boys put up close to those six in single games back in the day, let alone in an entire 16 game sked. One of, if not the biggest momentum shifters in boxla at any level is a short handed marker shoved down your throat, and you better believe that trickles down to the power-play you might find yourself in a minute later.

To me, that short-man stat just goes to show how lacking the Rock’s offensive press has been in recent years and how reliant they’ve been on the same four guys to do all their scoring. They’ve really tried to squeeze all they can outta that Manning-Sandesron-Wilson-(and now) Benesch foursome and that’s damn hard work, especially when expectations are so high.

The great thing about the Rock back in the day was their O always had someone stepping up. If Chris Gill had an off night, Dan Stroup picked up the slack and ripped an extra couple home. If Kim Squire was getting shutdown, Colin Doyle would take it to the cage himself and make-up for that. And later on they brought in secondary scorers like Kevin Finneran or even Matt Shearer for a season or two there, both of whom got their hands real dirty most nights. Lately, they just haven’t had that. Hopefully this year they do, and Beirnes certainly helped fill that void the other night, but I just can’t shake the fact that they only mustered up four even-strength goals.

The other trend? Coincidently, it’s a former number seven for the Rock. Colin Doyle.

Doyle had scored 56 even-strength goals in the two years leading up to his departure from TO, leading the team in both 05 and 06. Another coincidence, neither of those two years saw Colin lead the team in power-play goals. Doyle scored all of nine PP goals last year for San Jose, once again proving, his best work is done when ten guys are on the court. It’s just another in a number of areas the Rock have missed Colin over the past year.

So yeah, it’s great to have a solid working PP unit, why the hell wouldn’t it be. But as the top teams in this league have shown, if you rely too much on just one or two aspects of your game, as well as you do those one or two things, it’s those areas you’re not clicking in that are gonna come back and bite ya in the ass.

I think one of the real interesting things to watch for this year will be how much TO relies on their power-play and what kinda point production they can get racing outta their own end. As good as Bob Watson plays this year, as stellar a close-out Jim Veltman has on his career and as solid as Cam Woods and Peter Lough prove to be on D, I truly think the Rock’s season will be dictated by their ability to diversify their O and score on the press. Without improvements in those areas, it might be 07 all over again.

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