NLL Insider

Great players will almost always produce.

So like betting in Vegas, you should play the odds if you want to give yourself the best chance of ending up in the black, and ahead of your opponent.

But on occasion, you should – gasp – sit a stud or two and take some calculated risks based on match-ups.

Sure, you may end up taking a few wrong turns along the way. But if you follow these few helpful pieces of advice, you’ll win in the long run, and find your way to a fantasy title.

For example, so far this season, Colorado and Minnesota have given up the fewest goals-per-game, 10, while Chicago has given up the most, with an average of 15. Therefore, it is reasonable to bet that if two of your players, which are somewhat comparable fantasy starts – one with better numbers on the season and the Mammoth or Swarm up on deck, and the other with slightly lesser stats taking on the Shamrox – take the sensible risk and follow the pattern to success.

I highly recommend following these type of stats on www.pointstreak.com. There, not only can you follow games live, but also look at the league’s top scorers and goalie leaders to help you make the best decisions for who to start, and who to sit.

However, that said, my primary rule of thumb is that you must never, ever sit your absolute locks. These are usually composed of your first-two selections in the draft, or a sleeper who has really turned it up this season. There are always exceptions: injury, or because they just haven’t materialized during the season, etc. But other than that, realize that you drafted them that high for a reason. I said in a previous column, and I’ll probably say it in another, give these guys a chance to do what they do best – score you some solid fantasy totals.

And lastly, the rule that tends to be overlooked the most, set some time aside each week to simply consistently look over your lineup before it gets locked in, and make the intelligent changes where applicable. For instance, if you’ve got San Jose’s Colin Doyle (as I do), and had to choose between starting him against the Roughnecks on Friday, or the Mammoth on Saturday, take the safe route and play him against Calgary. By the numbers, you won’t always be right, but trying to outsmart yourself will have you losing your shirt, and not walking away with what you came in with, all too often.

The Insiders League:

Because of the way NLL fantasy is setup, along with the rest of you, we find ourselves at the awkward mid-week standstill.

In the first-place fracas for the West between Lauren’s People’s Republic of Check(oslovakia) and my Isotopes, it’s safe to say that she currently has me in a half nelson, 11.2-3.6. But she has also expended two of her top players to only one of mine. So I’d say that it’s still really anyone’s game. I see a daring come-from-behind victory for my sluggers of Albuquerque in the near future.

In the East, to this point, Bob Chavez has Stolen Paul Tutka’s Faceoff, up by 6. But Tuts’ Van Buren Boys still have their Top-4 to cycle through, while Chavez has only Derek Malawsky and Brodie Merrill still able to turn out points in his lineup. I’ll take Tutka pulling out some late-game heroics and taking over the East at 2-0.

From first-place to worst-place, in the battles of ineptitude (i.e. the already meaningless members of our league), some tight head-to-heads are already underway.

Brian Shanahan is still trying to decide Who does Own the Chiefs?, but is finding out quickly that it is not Gary Coleman (John Jiloty), 8-6.8. Both have three runners and their goaltending units yet to play, but I think Shanny holds on because his remaining runners are Josh Sanderson, Boyle and Dostie. In other words, I don’t think Benesch, Point and Marohl’s totals will surmount the Hanson Brothers.

And last, and definitely least, Ted Jenner’s team of 70s hair idolizing 0-fers is tied with Chris Hall’s double-dubya’s, nil-nil. Either man could take it. I’ll take the afro (Jenner) in a close one here because I see Gavin Prout finally breaking out this week for the stats he’s put up his entire career, and is still very capable of matching.

Best Smack Talk of the Week: Jiloty gets the nod for best razz of the week for his printable jab on Tutka with this graphic for the new Web site, www.EwokInsider.com.

More details to come later on if Tuts accepted their Senior Writer position. Regardless, glad to see that the boss is hard at work while I’m busy busting my hump. Keep up the good work.

Studs:

John Tavares (BUF):
Not only is he already one the greatest of all time, but he is now the all-time goals leader and led his team to its second straight win this past weekend. Barring injury, you don’t even have to think about this guy being in your lineup every week. I predict that he’ll fall a few points short of his first back-to-back 100-point seasons, but he’ll be darn close.

Casey Powell (NYT):
Believe the hype, because it’s real. Powell’s 9 goals through 2 games is good for second-best in the league, ahead of names like Manning, Sanderson, Tavares and even Grant, Jr. Add 6 assists, and Powell is ranked No. 8 overall for points, and has the best shooting percentage (.310) out of the Top-10 scorers. If you’ve got this guy, consider yourself lucky.

Athan Iannucci (PHI):
Everyone expected big things from this kid in his sophomore season, but he’s already way ahead of projections. Based on his numbers through 2 games (10, 4), he really should have been drafted in the Top-10. His 10 goals tie for the league lead with Manning, and his 7-points-per-game average is third, behind only Ratcliff’s 8 per, and C. Powell’s 7.5.

Duds:

Dan Teat (BUF):
No question that he’s still a contributor for the Bandits, but a 2 assists-per-game average (1 point per week in fantasy) just isn’t going to cut it. In 2007, he netted 20 goals, but through 3 games, still has none despite taking almost 20 shots. I say sit him until he starts producing on a more consistent and quantifiable level.

The Chicago Offense:
Through their first-two losses, the Shamrox are tied with Edmonton for the lowest Goals-For total (20) in the league, which should make for an interesting game this weekend when the two face-off. No one on the team has more than 3 goals (Callum Crawford and Kevin Fines (D)), and the top point-getter has a scant 6 (Josh Wasson – (2, 4)). Their schedule won’t get much easier from here, so don’t expect much. They could be on the duds list for weeks to come.

Start ‘Em:

Roger Vyse (BUF):
A third-year player, Vyse is tied for third on the squad in scoring (4, 6). This balanced scorer is in a perfect spot to continue to benefit from the losses of Greenhalgh and Bucktooth. Running on the second line, he should easily top his numbers from 2007, (12, 12), on his way to his best season in the league.

Delby Powless (BUF):
Powless literally epitomizes the word ‘consistent.’ Through his first-three seasons in the NLL, he has put up 44, 45, and 43 points, respectively. This year, running on a line with Vyse, these two play off of each other very well, combining for 20 points so far. The loss of Greenhalgh for the season and Bucktooth until at least the middle of February has him sliding into an even larger role. Plan on him hitting at least the mid-40’s in points once again, with a good chance of surpassing the low-50’s by season’s end.

Ryan Ward (MIN):
Nobody questioned Ward’s abilities, but he’s hit the new season running. (8, 3) for 11 points through 2 games, and he is looking like quite the fourth-round pick in our league (by me!). I expect nothing less than him continuing his offensive onslaught in Week 5 on the road against what is now looking like a very beatable Rochester squad.

Sit ‘Em:

Mike Accursi (EDM):
8 points (1, 7) through 2 games is nothing to shake a stick at, but a shooting percentage of .040 certainly is. His numbers can only get better from here, but Edmonton’s struggling offense doesn’t make me too optimistic about it happening sooner than later. If you can afford to bench him from your starting lineup, it is my strong recommendation that you do so.

Ryan Powell (POR):
(2, 3) in his first game back to indoor wasn’t bad, but with the acquisitions of Dawson and Derek Malawsky, it’s quite apparent that Powell is no longer the go-to guy for the LumberJax – no matter how ridiculous they look in that new tree hugger sweater. Additionally, his match-ups against Colorado and Calgary this week are not great. Show the middle No. 22 the pine until Week 6 when the ‘Jax travel to Edmonton to whip up on the Rush.

Sleepers:

Jason Wulder (COL):
After going a clutch (3, 1) versus Calgary in Week 1, and then quietly passing the 500-point marker with (0, 2) against his former team, the Edmonton Rush, in Week 3, I see Wulder bearing more of the load once again in Week 5 and coming up big-time. If he’s on your squad, roll the dice on the veteran and play him against Portland this week, rather than San Jose.

Callum Crawford (CHI):
I know, I know – I just got finished saying that the entire Chicago offense is worthless, but somebody has to score for them, right? The Shamrox have a very good match-up against the equally siv-like Rush, and I see Crawford hitting it out of the park this week. He is the team’s second-leading scorer (3, 2), and is a journeyman that knows what it’s like to be on a successful squad. I feel the least confident in him of my three sleeper picks, but am still convinced he will have a great game.

Frank Resetarits (SJS):
Call this one a hunch. I’ll bet that not only does the Albany-product start both of the Stealth’s games this upcoming weekend, but that he makes quite the splash in his first career games. Word has it that he had a tremendous camp, and that management merely wanted to see what they have in fellow rookie Tom Johnson in their opener. Resetarits is in the same skill class as Jordan Hall, Merrick Thomson, Craig Point and Dane Dobbie, and his numbers from here on out should highlight that.

Closing Notes:

That should give readers at least a tiny edge over their non-reading competition for at least one more week.

If you have any questions, comments or just want to compliment me on my unbelievable mastery of the English language, e-mail me at: nllfantasyinsider@nllinsider.com. Please include your name and location because the best messages will be published in next week’s Fantasy Insider column.

See you next Thursday!

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