NLL Insider

OK, I’m jumping the gun but I’ve got the attention of all you pissed off Wings fans. 

I’m convinced that Philadelphia is a legitimate contender for the Champion’s Cup.  While there is no doubt they have earned the right to be the No. 1 team on the Power Rankings, it’s a little to early to consider them - or any team - as a favorite to win it all. A lot can happen between now and May.

Heading into the weekend, the Wings are the only undefeated team at 5-0.  Those victories include wins over Buffalo, Rochester, Colorado and Minnesota, arguably the next best four teams in the NLL. They are averaging a league-high 16.2 goals a game, they have the best penalty killing (67%), the best faceoff percentage and are  also tops in the league playing 5-on-5.

If the season were to end today Athan Iannucci would be the runaway MVP. He is scoring 5 goals per game, a pace that would demolish Gary Gaits single season record of 61 - and is also on pace to tie Tavares’ 115 point season record. He is shooting at a rate that would give him 400 shots this season. I don’t think the league keeps records of shots, but last year John Grant had the most in the NLL with 272. 

Whats the bad news? The Wings have only played one game on the road. Even though their win at Denver’s Pepsi center was a very impressive road victory, one game is not enough to prove they are a strong road team. 

Other flaws? Iannucci has scored 30% of their goals. Minnessota’s top scorer  (Ryan Ward) only has 16% of his team’s goals, Buffalo’s top shooter (Mark Steenhuis) has 17% and if you look down the list I doubt you find another team with a player scoring more than 20%.  What happens when  Iannucci gets shut down? Will his teammates pick up the slack? Believe me, he will get shut down some games.

I spoke to a player on a team that has yet to play the Wings and he told me it’s their plan is to deny him the ball all game.  From the moment he steps on the floor for each shift, they plan to have a pesky runner making sure that his teammates can’t even give him the ball. It will allow the Wings to play 4-on-4 offence but it will take them out of their comfort zone. 

Another problem: the Wings have the 10^th best (third-worst) power play at 39%. In fact, their overall Specialty Teams Plus-Minus (STPM) is 7^th in the league at zero. For the past three years the team with the best STPM has won the championship. At this point, the Wings prefer to play 5-on-5 lacrosse, but what happens if they get bogged down in a penalty filled game against a very hot power play? By the way, tonight’s opponent, the New York Titans, have the best STPM at +8. 

Finally, the Wings have never played back-to-back games - or even two games in one weekend this season. Will their athleticism be nullified when they play a rested team after a tough game the night before? Like this weekend? 

I wouldn’t characterize any of the above arguments as proof of Philly’s weakness, but they are challenges that the Wings will have to face. I’m quite sure that their talent, athleticism, and coaching will allow them to rise to most of these challenges. However, there will be times that they end up on the losing end and my gut tells me it will happen this weekend. The obvious pick for a loss would be Saturday night against the rested Bandits - but I’m sure the Knighthawks would be the first to advise them not to look past New York Titans.

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