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Alright, enough of the technical analysis for now. The schedule is more or less halfway completed and it’s time to take stock of where every team sits in the standings. The trade deadline is looming and decisions will have to be made by many GMs based on whether they want to gamble on a serious shot at the Champion’s Cup or look to the future.

The West division is probably the easiest to analyze so let’s take a look at it first.

Colorado and San Jose are currently tied for first at 5-3 after the Stealth came away with a key road victory in the Pepsi Center on Saturday night. It was a critical loss for the Mammoth in terms of a division title given they now have only two home games remaining in their last eight and one of those is against Rochester. They also have to go through Buffalo and New York in the East division on the road.

On the other hand, San Jose has 5 home games remaining. Two of those are against Portland and one against Edmonton. On the road they also have an Edmonton game and a Portland game. Let’s face it, those two teams have a collective 4 wins in 17 outings so far this season. Who’s going to finish first in the West? San Jose.

But that doesn’t mean the Mammoth have a lock on second. The Calgary Roughnecks have a serious shot at second that brings with it an all-important home playoff game. A home playoff game in this league can be critical for the health of a franchise. It can make the difference between a profitable season and a losing one for ownership. You can bet that message has been delivered in Cowtown. The Roughnecks are a disappointing 4-6 at this stage but in their last six they face Edmonton three times, albeit twice on the road.

The key game for second place in the West division is next up for the Roughies at home versus Colorado. If Calgary can win that game versus a sliding Mammoth team, it will mean the Roughnecks have a legitimate shot at the number two spot in the division.

San Jose, Colorado and Calgary. That’s three of the four playoff spots. Failing disaster, the Stealth will be in for a home playoff date and the Mammoth and Roughnecks will battle it out for the other home game. Who gets the last playoff spot? I say Portland. They’re a miserable 3-7 to date but they still have more talent than Edmonton and the Rush are still two games back in the win column. Portland also holds the season series advantage. That means the Rush have to somehow end up with one more win on the season than the Jax. It’s not going to happen.

Unless, that is, Portland decides to look to the future and trades some or all of its Arizona Sting “rental players.” It’s highly unlikely that the LumberJax are going to get a home playoff date but they have arguably the most valuable “rental player” in Dan Dawson. They also have possibly the next most valuable “rental” in proven winner Derek Malawsky. Add to these two, transition player Brad McDonald who won a Champion’s Cup with the Roughnecks in ’04. Hmmm? If I’m the GM in Rose City, I’ve got to be pondering what I should do.

Now for the East. To simplify, I really think that there are five teams that are going to battle for the four playoff spots: Philadelphia; Buffalo; Minnesota; Rochester; and Toronto. Philly should win the East in spite of the fact that six of their remaining nine are on the road. I just think their roster is very strong and the additions of A.J. Shannon and Brandon Miller should only make them better. The rescheduling and ultimate result of this weekend’s canceled game against Toronto, though, could prove to be a critical outcome for both teams in the end.

As the last weekend of the regular season unfolds, you’ll probably be able to throw a blanket over the standings of Buffalo, Rochester and Minnesota. Buffalo already has seven wins under its belt despite a rash of injuries and four of the last five games are at home so the Bandits should be safe. Rochester has struggled a bit to date but has Edmonton and Chicago next up which should get them to 6-4 with six to go. Those last six aren’t easy but I think the fact they’re defending champs and the presence of John Grant Jr. will carry them through. It’s interesting though, that there are some franchise stability issues present in Rochester and those may be psychologically affecting team performance.

Minnesota still has a good shot at winning the division let alone a playoff spot. They have four games with the Chicago Shamrox left on their remaining schedule of seven. However, it’s historically tough to beat a team four consecutive times in this league so I’ve got to believe the Shamrox are going to win at least one of those games. And the Swarm still has to get by Philly, Rochester and New York. That’s why I say you’ll be able to throw a blanket over Buffalo, Rochester and Minnesota when the season ends.

That leaves Toronto. After the Rock’s season home opener last-two-minute-disaster versus the Swarm, I alluded to the fact that the loss was potentially a season-defining-moment. And that had nothing to do really with the post-game incident. It may be hard to consider that a team’s first game of a season may in fact spell doom for the playoffs with a loss, but for Toronto’s season, it may be the case.

The Rock may look comfortable now at 5-3 and five of their last eight are at home but their three away games are Philly, Buffalo and Calgary and two of their five home games are against the Knighthawks and the Wings. I have them finishing in that worst of all spots at fifth.

What about New York and Chicago you say? Arguably the Titans still have a good chance to make the playoffs in the East but the competition is just too tough. They have four homes and three aways left but one of those homes is against the Wings in a neutral site. They also have to face Philly at Wachovia, the Rock at the ACC and Minnesota at the Xcel centre. In spite of the fact they’ve performed very well to date, the remaining task is, in my opinion, insurmountable.

As for Chicago? Well, at 1-6, to be honest, there really is no hope of making the playoffs with their current talent pool. The Shamrox may be a bit of a victim of their first season success and the resultant more difficult schedule in year two. The Portland Lumberjax were the recipient of this bit of realism last year after their stellar first campaign and are still recovering. It will be good to see Matt Roik back in action in the league. Roik can be one of the best goaltenders in the game and was spectacular in the last year’s World Indoor Championships where he played for Team England.

So, will we see some player movement in the next week prior to the trade deadline? Will some teams “shoot the moon” for a chance at the Cup while others plan for better things next year? I’ve got to think some of those Sting “rentals” will be on the move.

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