NLL Insider

Who’s gonna’ win the Champion’s Cup?

More importantly, who’s gonna’ take home the hardware in IL’s inaugural NLL fantasy league? I’ll have my picks for both a little later in the column, but for now, let’s discuss how I got to these conclusions.

I’ve been telling you all (fantasy) season that you’ve got to stock your roster with players on teams that are doing well. Yes, there are Dan Dawson’s (POR) and Blaine Manning’s (TOR) out there, but pretty much everyone else on the league scoring leader list is either on a team contending for the playoffs, or has already sealed up a spot.

Additionally, three of the four teams in our fantasy league that made the playoffs are primarily composed of a lot of these same guys, players from Philadelphia, Minnesota, Colorado, San Jose and Buffalo, etc.

I hate to tell you, but this is no coincidence. Why do you think NFL fantasy teams that include LaDainian Tomlinson always seem to make their playoffs? It’s not astrophysics.

So what does this mean for you if you’ve made the playoffs?

Well, I’m glad you asked. Because Colorado and San Jose are the only teams in the entire league to lock-up playoff spots so far - and even those two are still battling it out for the top seed - everyone is still going out full-go to get into the second season. Unfortunately, only eight teams will qualify, and it’s now up to you to decide who those will be…thus the title of this week’s column:, Playoff Pick’em.

After evaluating each team’s remaining schedules, where they’re at currently and who are the driving forces behind each squad - plus a couple intangibles like home vs. away games and the like, I’ve concluded that the playoffs will look like this:

East:

(1) Philadelphia
(2) Buffalo
(3) Minnesota
(4) Rochester

West:

(1) San Jose
(2) Colorado
(3) Calgary
(4) Edmonton

So if you’ve got players on these teams’ rosters, consider yourself lucky, and in good shape to take it all. If not, you clearly didn’t heed my call to trade for them earlier in the year and like Bob Chavez in our league, you’re just going to have to roll with what you’ve got and hope for the best.

The Insiders League:

From eight, we’re down to four, and next week, we’ll crown our fantasy champ. What a tragedy that me and the Albuquerque Isotopes are not in the running. I blame the schedule, my team name (What was I thinking?) - not to mention the fact that I was the only person to lose to Brian Shanahan all season. (Sigh), such is life.

Anyway, our semifinal round looks like this:

(1) The Van Buren Boys (Paul Tutka) vs. (4) Steal Your Faceoff (Bob Chavez)

(2) Gary Colemans (John Jiloty) vs. (3) bob mcmahons afro (Ted Jenner)

I’m going to pick Tutka and Jenner in the opening round, and then obviously depending entirely on how they pick their rosters for the final, I’ll take The Van B Boys in a squeaker - by one or maybe two points. Who wouldn’t pick a team with such a great reference to Seinfeld? We might as well hand Tuts the trophy right now.

Update to come next week - Stay tuned!

Studs:

Athan Iannucci (PHI): (6, 2) 14 LB vs. POR, (3, 3) vs. MIN
Pretty incredible to break the all-time goals in a season record held by probably the greatest ever, Gary Gait, in only your second year! Three more seasons at, or even near that level, and Iannucci will tie up a Hall of Fame career, only having played five seasons.

Kaleb Toth (CGY): (4, 5) vs. EDM
Relative to the rest of his career, Toth’s numbers in 2008 have been a little quiet. Perhaps the game against Edmonton will be the breakout he needed, and it will help to lead his team deep into the playoffs. Either way, I say go with him this week as him and the Roughnecks vie for a spot in the dance, and strong positioning.

John Grant, Jr. (ROC): (3, 4) 13 LB vs. BUF
In a game where I actually picked Buffalo, Grant and the rest of the K’Hawks showed why you still can’t count them out. They just have way too much offensive firepower for me to leave them out of the final 8. The Titans are currently ahead of them, but as you noticed earlier, I think the ‘07 Champs will sneak in. They may not go any further than that, but they should at least make it.

Duds:

I’m going to make this very plain and simple: Anyone on the Portland, Toronto or Chicago rosters. New York will be my one wild card where I don’t think they’ll make the playoffs, but they might, and have guys that can still put up some pretty big stats in coming up short.

As I’ve stated plenty of times, if your best players are guys on these rosters, you have no choice but to Dance with who brung ya’ (Sorry, I love that adage). But my suggestion is that if you’re deciding between anyone on the LumberJax not named Dawson, Merrill or maybe even Malawsky; anyone on the Rock not named Ratcliff or Manning; or anyone of the Shamrox not named Clark or Giles, and someone on a winning team headed for the playoffs, you are playing with fire my friend.

Start ‘Em:

Call me biased, but I’m going all Swarm all the time in this section. I really think their scorers will keep up with the pace they’ve set for themselves on their way to No. 3-seed in the East.

Andy Secore (MIN):
In his third season, Secore is leading his team in points with 65 (24, 41) with 3 games remaining. Just imagine if he hadn’t gotten hurt and played in every game so far. I predict he’ll finish with 76 points and in the Top-10 of scorers. At the beginning of the season, who would’ve thunk it?

Ryan Ward (MIN):
(28, 34)for 62 ain’t too shabby. That’s right in line to match his 2007 season: (23, 52) for 75. If these guys get a decent draw, I think they could definitely go all the way. However, if things go the way I think they will, I actually have them at Buffalo in Round 1, which isn’t very good at all considering they went 0-2 at HSBC Arena this season. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Chad Culp (MIN):
Culp ranks just fifth on his team in scoring, but I’m forecasting a strong end to the regular season for him after going (3, 2) 7 LB vs. Philly last week. In all likelihood, ‘08 will end up being the best of his career. He has 46 points (21, 25) through 13 games, and the best he’s had to this point is 55 points in 2006. Seriously, if you’ve got him, you need to play him (I’m talking to you Jiloty!).

Sit ‘Em:

Lewis Ratcliff (TOR):
I know a little earlier I said that if you were considering starting anyone except Ratcliff or Manning on Toronto’s roster, you were making a mistake, but I’m going to even say that starting Ratcliff is a big risk. Headed back to Calgary for the first time since the trade, I think he will struggle with the emotional game and won’t produce like you need him to - especially in the playoffs. If you have no other choice, go with him, but don’t expect a career-game, or anything close to it.

Anyone on Portland’s Roster:
Similarly, if you have to, Malawasky, Merrill and Dawson are legitimate options, but I’d stay away from anyone on the team if possible. They travel to San Jose and then Buffalo in consecutive weeks to close out the season. I think Edmonton - a better team with momentum and an easier end to the year - passes them up for the fourth playoff spot in the West, and also has a higher scoring output on their way.

Closing Notes:

I’ll have updates for how my all of these prophesies panned out next week. I’ll tell you though, after doing the analysis, I feel pretty strongly about these assertions.

Clearly, anything can happen - particularly in a league like the NLL where there is so much parody - but I’d be little surprised if they don’t go the way I’ve predicted, to say the least.

Best of luck if your team is in the playoffs. And if not, join the rest of us in just sitting back and watching it all unfold.

It’s almost playoff time, kids! Enjoy!

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