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We’re only a couple weeks away from the first round of the playoffs, and I gotta tell ya, I’m pretty amped.

I’m also doin’ a ton of trend analysis this week to see what previous year’s Champion’s Cup winners (and MILL winners) did that might give us a good idea of who this year’s champ could be. I know, I know, sports are played on the field and stats are tracked by us media geeks in the press box (and Scott Neiss), but I still think they can give us a pretty good idea of what the future holds most seasons.

Today I’m gonna take a quick look at two things that the past 15 year’s worth of pro box winners had, or didn’t have, comin’ outta the regular seaosn.

Two questions…  #1 How important is winning the regular season crown? And #2 How important are end of year runs?

To the first question, it actually seems like it’s semi-important. Not as important as it used to be (and yes I realize there were fewer teams in the early to mid 90’s which affects that trend a bit, so relax), but still pretty important.

Over the last 15 years, the Cup winner has also been the regular season champ nine times. Like I said, not so much in recent years, but take a look at the table (after all the text below), the regular season king at the very least almost always at least makes it to the Cup final.

With this year being tighter than my shorts were on my waist yesterday when I tried ‘em on for the first time this spring, it’s tough to know who this year’s reg season king will be. By my calculations, it looks like there are still seven teams in the running to nab that regular season lead, so we won’t know until next week at this time who’ll have that favorable spot heading into this year’s playoffs.

The other thing I wanted to look at was late season runs by Champ Cup winners.

A couple weeks back when I asked the players what the most important aspect of a good Cup run was, 43% of them told me peaking at the right time meant more than anything else.

So with that said, I took a look at what the recet Cup winners did in the final month (or so) before entering the post-season. One thing it proved, you probably wanna be goin’ into that stretch drive on a decent winning note. Not too many teams that crashed and burned to close the year out won the Cup, actually none have.

Over the last 15 seasons, in 13 of those years the eventual Cup winner had a winning record over their last five (about a month’s worth of games)starts. Only twice has a team that was somewhat sinking towards the end of the year won the Cup, 2002’s Toronto Rock and 1997’s Rochester Knighthawks, both with 2-3 three records over that span. Nine of those years the Cup winner usually had four wins or better to close out those last five. It definitely looks like that climb to peak right at the Champ Cup final starts a lot earlier than the first game of the playoffs. It started about three weeks ago!!

So what does all that tell us for this season? Well, we gotta lotta teams batting .500 in April, outside of Rochester and New York, who are both 3-1 over their last four. With those two duking it out this weekend at MSG, one of those will have that all important 4-1 record leading into the playoffs. Minny, if they sweep Chicago this weekend, might also be entering the post-season on a high note (aka 4-1) too.

Anyways, the figures are below. Think both tables are pretty self explanatory. The first table shows who won the Cup, their last five games in the reg season, their regular season record (just cuz) and then who won the regular season crown. The highlighted years are obviously the seasons that had the same regular season champ as Champ Cup champ (or MILL).

The second table shows the team’s still in the running this year, what they’ve done over their last four and who they’ve got on the docket for this weekend.

Will a win by Buffalo over Portland this weekend all but kill the Jax’s chances in the playoffs? Are the surging Titans and Hawks a lot of people’s faves to do damage past this weekend on a way to a title? Will a win by either Colorado or San Jose this weekend all but seal their place in the final? And based on who they’ve got next, who’s your pick for the regular season crown? Hit the boards with your opinion and stay tuned this week and next for more post-season analysis.

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