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Did not do all that bad in last week’s look at the first round. Tied my hombre Ty Pilson in his picks.

Think this weekend’s Division Finals offer some pretty interesting match-ups that will no doubt dictate how both those games go. After the jump, checkout how I see ‘em playin’ out, and more importantly, why.

(1) Buffalo Bandits (11-6) vs. (3) New York Titans (11-6)

Interesting to hear Buffalo coach Darris Kilgour tell media this week that the team will be going with Kenny Montourbetween the pipes to start against New York. Not cuz Monster is a bad tender, hell, statistically he was the best in the bigs in 08. But with Mike Thompson playin’ solid in the Bandits win over Philly, outside of that rocket he threw up on the Wings’ naked cage, I thought for sure Mike would get the nod again. Not that it means much, but Thompson was 1-0 against New York way earlier in the year in a bit of a shoot-out type game, while Monster got tagged with the L mid-season against the Titans coming in behind Thompson in a match that if I remember correctly, was the game Greg Peyser ran Thompson over and sidelined him with a concussion. I think the team definitely has faith in both guys, but as we’ve seen in the NHL and even in the NLL, mixin’ up your tender spot in the post-season can sometimes burn ya.

I’m interested to see how the Bandits will contain Jeff Ratcliffe, both with and without the rock in his pocket. Although his stats from the regular season might not have too many people droppin’ their jaw, the former Wing has worked tirelessly off the ball this year and even showed last week that he’s still more than capable of exploding for a huge game on the score-sheet too. Is he gonna be able to bait the Bandits in-your-face-D into any penalties around the crease? Cuz he’ll definitely be camped out there. Although I love ‘em as a player, I can already picture Billy Dee Smith goin’ loco on Rat if he starts takin’ up to much real-estate in and around the cage. For a power-play scorin’ machine like the Titans (league leading 60 PP goals in the regular season), the Bandits are gonna have to play their most disciplined ball of the year (duh!!!). Five penalties like they got nailed with last week against Philly might be three or four too many against New York, even though the Titans went a mediocre 2 for 5 last weekend.

I’m dyin’ to see how Smith and a guy like Jarret Park will match up when Smith is playing on O in set 5v5 too. Although New York’s tranny D guys aren’t as high scoring as maybe Philly was during the year, you better believe guys like Park, Peyser, Matt Alrich and even John Orsen can snipe ya when you’re sleeping. Buffalo’s gonna have to get off the rug super quick and guys like Smith, Pat McCready and obviously Mark Steenhuis are gonna have to slow up that press large.

Was super impressed by Brett Bucktooth’s game last week and I think he might be that secondary scorer for Buffalo that will be the X factor on O this weekend. He mighta not had the big-time digits other guys had, but thought he worked real hard off the ball, got into some good spots and did a good job to keep the ball moving. I think his work ethic pays off for him on Saturday night.

Also should be interesting to see how much New York’s D will focus on playoff lucky charm, Mike Accursi. Cuz of his outta sight game last weekend, think we might see Mike doing more double team baiting and opening lanes up for the rest of the O with some big feeds comin’ off his stick. I say look for a lotta A’s from Mike this weekend versus the hat trick plus kinda performance he had against the Wings. He’s more versatile then most give him credit for and I think we’ll see that versatility this weekend.

Anyways, with all that said, I think this one will come down to the wire for sure, maybe even the first OT game of the post-season. Hmmmm… think Darris has his team prepared and the guys come out right away, not past the first 15 minutes like last week, and inch this one out. 14-13 OT Buffalo, game winner from Kevin Dostie.

(3) Calgary Roughnecks (8-9) vs. (4) Portland Lumberjax (7-10)

A couple weeks back I said I wish these two had the chance to play one another one last time this year, and after last week’s upsets, I got my wish. Even though Dan Dawson was sick, wicked and nasty (that goes out to Raps voice Chuck Swirsky who’s leavin’ for Chi-Town this summer), what I think I was most impressed by was the play from Matt Disherafter he was thrown back between the pipes. He was beyond clutch in his return and totally had San Jose’s O firing blanks in that fourth period. That’s playoff goaltending at its finest people. If Dish is on his game for even just three periods, it might not matter what Calgary throws at him.

And not to downplay Dawson at all…

… containing him will be beyond important too, but it’s something Calgary’s D has actually done a pretty good job of doing for most of the year. Daws had seven goals against Calgary this winter in three games, but it was on 40 total shots. Think Calgary’s D is really gonna have to make him pay in tight too. San Jose’s D almost kinda seemed to lay off him a bit when he crashed the cage and passed his first D guy, let alone second. Not only are they gonna need to slide on D effectively, they’ll need to rock the sh** outta him on contact too.

Portland’s D will definitely try and keep Calgary’s O outside all night, but if guys like Kaleb Toth and even Kelly Hall have a hot hand, similar to what we saw last week from ‘em, then being outside might not be such a bad thing. And if their outside game isn’t there, it’s gonna take a ton of off ball movement from the rest of their O… with super quick releases to boot. The Riggers’ offense can’t be second guessing themselves and holding onto the rock for too long. Gonna be tough against that much improved Jax D, but it’ll have to be done it they want a chance. Gotta keep that big physical D movin’ on and off the ball carrier and catch ‘em lookin’ the wrong way.

I think I’m actually gonna go against the norm now that I’ve thought about this game a bit more. Which means… I’m takin’ Portland 13-11. Think Portland’s two-way game is a bit better than people give it credit for and if they can finish on the press, I think they’ll inch this one out. And with all the love for Daws last week, I’m not sure people realize what a force Ryan Powell was against the Stealth. I say Powell leads this game in scoring and maybe even finishes with as many as five goals.

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