I know last week is history but before I talk about the division finals I’ve got to go back to last week’s San Jose Portland game.  I was shocked, along with the coaches of both teams, that the Lumberjax and Stealth abandoned defensive lacrosse in this playoff matchup.  I watched this game live as part of the Comcast television production and it was the third time we had covered Portland at San Jose. The running joke between play-by-play man Greg Papa and I was that the first team to score 12 goals would win. It worked every other time they met. Boy, were we wrong. Although it wasn’t in the game plan, both teams decided to play a game of street ball. There were 33 even strength goals. I can understand that Portland needed to open the game up when they fell behind 9-4 but I don’t understand why the Stealth were willing to participate in a game of run and gun. Of course Dan Dawson had a lot to do with Portland’s success with his 12 points but the reason San Jose lost this game was because of a few brain cramps that were best exemplified with Brad MacDonald’s 2 goals.  MacDonald, who was Calgary’s lucky charm in their championship run of 2004 , was was able to score two momentus goals for the Jax when he was left wide open at critical points in the game. You have to give Portland credit for the victory but San Jose lost that game with mistakes that are usually made early in a season.

Portland at Calgary

Not since the Gaits first came on the scene have I seen a player toy with the defense like Dan Dawson did in San Jose last weekend. At times he made it look so easy that it didn’t seem fair. Dawson scored 7 goals and 5 assists without a second on the power play time. When John Grant scored 15 points to break the single game point record last season he scored only scored 10 points playing five on five lacrosse. I doubt the NLL keeps track off this but I dare say that no one has ever scored 12 points even strength.  What was even more amazing is that every one of Dawson’s 7 goals was scored on settled 5 on 5 situations. He didn’t get any fast breaks or broken plays. With that said I’m going to give Calgary’s Coach Cordingly some free advice on how to beat Portland. Stop Dawson. Ok easier said than done. A player as good as Dawson is going to get his points on the power play and transition  (even though he didn’t last weekend) so you actually want to minimize his effectiveness by 5 on 5.  How can you best do that? Deny him the ball. Dawson is most dangerous once he gets that ball in his stick. Let him play one on one and  your playing with fire. When he drives to the net there’s about a 75% chance he will score, find an open man if he’s doubled, or draw a penalty. The key is to lock on to him before he gets the ball. Put a quick defender on him and don’t try to out muscle him. Cover his stick and follow him all over the floor if you have to. If Portland chooses to play 4 on 4 offence, let them.  I remember doing it against Gary Gait in his Brooklin Redmen days. It bothered him so much not to have the ball that he would run all the way back into his own end  (there was no over and back line). Of course I would follow him there and then he would sprint back to try to lose me. Gait and the Redmen still beat us in those days but if you could hold him to 3 goals instead of 6 it was a good day. The point is that guys like Gary Gait and Dawson are not off ball players and any way you can take them out of their comfort zone the better are your chances.

How do you counter if you are Portland? Bring Dawson right back to the restraining line and let your teammates play 4-4. Hopefully guys like Powell and Brodie Merrill can take advantage off the extra space. The other tactic that Keenan use to counter Calgary if they lock on Dawson is to bring him back to the restraining line and pull the goalie for the extra attacker. Dawson can get to the bench, to allow Disher back on the floor before the shot is taken.

So who will win? Sorry Calgary but I have to pick you guys to take it. (Calgary players love when I pick them to lose)  With Kelusky, Dietrich and all their players back in the lineup Calgary is the better team. They were bordering on midseason disaster but are now playing the way many of us thought they would when the season started. This week Merrill and Dawson wont be enough for the Lumberjax to advance to the final. Calgary will win this at home in spite of the Shanny jinx. 

New York at Buffalo

I did an interview after New York’s 6^th game of the season. After starting the season 1 and 4 they had just upset the Bandits with a 10-9 overtime victory. I was asked if I thought that the victory saved Adam Mueller’s job. I replied that I didn’t know his job was in jeopardy but that there wasn’t a better person to coach the New York Titans. Adam is an American field lacrosse player with over 10 years experience in the NLL. New York has a blend of Canadian and American players and most Canadian coaches would not have the patience needed to teach so many field lacrosse players the indoor game.  In fact I think I said that the only other person with qualifications like Adam is his former coach Tony Resch.    The other reason that I thought it would be stupid to fire Mueller was that I had such little expectations for the Titans to begin with. In my pre season picks I ranked them 12^th out of 12.   Little did I know that I would be ranking them number 1 in my Power Rankings.

At the other end of New York State we have Darris Kilgour and the Buffalo Bandits. If Kilgor had won the coach of the year instead of Mueller you would have got no arguments from me. Other than a couple of blips against the Toronto Rock, there was no more consistent team than the Bandits.  While teams like the Calgary Roughnecks were devastated by injuries, the Bandits probably lost more man games to key personnel than any team in the NLL. 

How can you pick against the Bandits? They are a talented veteran laden team that can win any type of game and they will be playing in front of a ravenous crowd at home. Tavares is 39 now and may not be as good as he was 6 years ago but he is still the smartest player in the NLL. On the other hand I am 5-12 in games involving the Titans so don’t take this pick to the bank.  The Titans have surpassed my expectations week after week and they have been in so many do or die games that they are used to the pressure. You won’t see guys picking fights with Ryan Boyle and Casey Powell now that Rory Smith and Patrick Merrill have injected toughness into their lineup but  I’ll stick with Buffalo to take the East Division.

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