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Despite chopping two big West Division opponents down to size, the Portland LumberJax are getting little respect for their unexpected post-season surge.

I’m betting there are few folks outside of Oregon giving them any chance to beat the Buffalo Bandits this Saturday at the HSBC Arena in the Champion’s Cup final.

Let’s face it, the optics aren’t good: The No. 1 seeded Bandits vs. The No. 4 seed Jax; Buffalo went 10-6 during the regular season, the Jax 6-10; The Bandits were 7-2 at home during the regular season, the Jax 3-5 on the road.

On the other hand, this is a new season. Both teams are 2-0. Buffalo has scored 33 goals in wins over Philly and New York while Portland has scored 34 goals in upsets over San Jose and Calgary.

Furthermore, the 18 goals Portland scored against San Jose all came 5-on-5. Still a feat to marvel at.
And while Buffalo scored its 33 goals against goalies named Rob Blasdell, Brandon Miller and Matt Vinc (all solid ’tenders, no offence intended), Portland has victimized two of the premier ’tenders in the game in Anthony Cosmo and Steve Dietrich.

That being said, my money’s still on Buffalo.

Even having watched Portland beat Calgary and put up 16 goals, I’m not sold on the Jax. Clearly, they’re playing their best lacrosse of the season. However, so is Buffalo.

And, perhaps most importantly, the Bandits have homefloor advantage in the championship tilt.

When you stack the two rosters side-by-side, the Bandits get the edge in most facets of the game.
Ken Montour and Mike Thompson have been lights out between the pipes and are a much more formidable tandem right now than Matt Disher, who left the win over Calgary with an injury, and veteran Dallas Eliuk.

Buffalo’s transition game, led by Mark Steenhuis, is more of a threat to open up a game with quick end-to-end goals.

Both clubs have big defenses. Against Calgary, Portland did a good job of clogging the lanes and making it hard for the Roughnecks forwards to find daylight. I think Buffalo has an edge on D but, at worst, let’s call it a saw-off.

On offense, Buffalo scored 203 goals during the regular season while Portland managed just 179. The biggest reason for Portland’s playoff goalfest is Dan Dawson, who has 12 goals and 22 points. Both Calgary and San Jose did poor jobs of containing Dawson. I don’t expect the same from Buffalo. While Ryan Powell, Peter Morgan and Derek Malawsky have also done damage this post-season, there’s no doubt in my mind that if Buffalo can shut down Dawson, they shut down Portland’s attack.

Both teams boast potent powerplays, finishing 1-2 (Buffalo at 51.06% and Portland at 50.60%) during the regular season.
As always, the key to Buffalo winning is staying out of the penalty box. They found that the hard way when they lost to Colorado in 2006.

The Bandits have always been their own worst enemies when it comes to playing sloppy, undisciplined lacrosse at times. The team has been a championship favorite for five years now with no titles to show for it. In 2006, they wore a hole in the carpet to and from the penalty box as they came unglued in the defeat to a focused Colorado Mammoth squad.
To make matters worse, it happened at home in front of the Bandits faithful. You can bet they don’t want to repeat that performance.

Buffalo again led the league in penalty minutes this season (the Bandits had 478, while Philly was second with 440 and Calgary last with 290), but are playing much smarter this year, according to one player I spoke with.
He said where in the past it was easy to get under their skin and cause Buffalo players to take stupid penalties, not the case anymore.

Before Buffalo beat New York, he predicted the Bandits would win it all.

“Nobody is going to beat them, especially not at home,” he said.

My thought, as well.

My pick: Buffalo 16, Portland 11

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