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Think I mighta been the only person on the planet to have given the edge to Portland last week, well, outside of anyone from Portland that is.

I really like the way they’re playing right now and even though Buffalo should definitely be a good three point favorite, I gotta tell ya, I wouldn’t count-out the one time written-off Jax too quickly.

Before I get into any analysis, first thing I gotta say is, I WAS WRONG. I was wrong about the Titans in the East and even more wrong about the Jax in the West. It was a weird year, but bottom line, I was wrong. Both teams came to play and even though there were some early season struggles, they won when they needed to and proved a whole helluva lot of us in the biz, well, wrong. So no matter what happens this weekend, congrats to both teams, cuz you had one helluva ride no matter what the haters say.

Anyways, onto the game…

I’m not buying this whole “stay outta the box” stuff that keeps coming up about this game. I don’t see either team letting their egos get the better of them here, and if they do, they had no business playing Saturday night anyways. I know Ian  Llord got a bit heated to close out the Bandits’ win over New York last week, but that game was all but done at that point and he definitely wasn’t the guy that instigated what went down. All I’m sayin’ is, this game will definitely not come down to special teams, cuz trust me, these guys aren’t nearly dumb enough to let themselves fall into that trap. It just won’t happen. That theme is sooo played (gotta go to like the 2:30 mark). I think the guys on both teams are too smart to fall into that kinda crap at this point, I really do.

From a few of the quotes I’ve been reading this week, it sounds like Buffalo is really hung up on containing Dan Dawson. Obviously having a game plan for Daws is a smart move, but he’s far from the only threat on that Portland O. I hope Buffalo doesn’t get too severe a case of triple-D-tunnel-vision, cuz there is a whole host of secondary scorers on the Jax roster that can finish and step-up if need be.

Ryan Powell’s been beyond clutch in his two western throw-downs (see latest Money Ballers) and Peter Morgan has been almost as deadly. And Morgan’s a guy too that is just so versatile at either end of the court, and for me at least, has been one of the toughest guys to shutdown in 08’s post-season. I haven’t really seen anyone effectively contain Morgan in either the San Jose or Calgary game. Like Dawson, Morgan is a bitch-and-half to cover at times, and if you think you can give him that extra step, even at a lanky 6′6″, this guy is more than athletic enough and has a good enough first step to toast you within seconds. Powell and Morgan cannot go unaddressed.

On the other end of the court, Buffalo has an army of secondary threats that continue to step up when the chips are down, and it’s been that way all season. I pegged Brett Bucktooth as the X factor on O before last week’s game, and he definitely didn’t fail to impress with a hat trick and more great play off the ball. I think Brett continues that play and maybe even takes it up another notch. His confidence has continued to go through the roof since coming back from surgery earlier this year and that confidence has definitely been evident in his play.

And as unoriginal as it sounds, I think this one will definitely come down to goaltending. Although I’ve been a strong backer of both Mike Thompson and Kenny Montour all year, I think the Jax may actually have the edge here. And here’s why… I think Matt Disher and Dallas  Eliuk have played way bigger roles in their team’s two post-season wins versus what Thompson and Montour have posted. Not saying the Buffalo tandem have played poorly, they definitely haven’t, but both Dish and Dallas have been pivotal players in both upset wins. Some may say (like me!!) the difference makers both times.

Disher mighta been rocked early by San Jose, but after a couple minutes on the bench to regain his composure, he came back and looked almost unbeatable with the Stealth throwing everything plus the kitchen sink at him, including a stunning performance on two power-plays that left the Stealth reeling. Ditto for Dallas in relief of Disher last weekend against Calgary. It was pretty close to vintage Eliuk. That is playoff goaltending at its finest. I haven’t seen that same level of tending from the Buffalo duo. Great keepers, but neither has taken over a game on their own. If Buffalo’s D falters even for just a period, can Thompson (who will be starting) or Montour be that piece of gum that keeps the floodgates from crashing open?

Sounds like Dallas is getting the nod with a less than 100% Disher still recuperating, but for me it doesn’t matter who gets the starting job, cuz both are in the zone right now and are playing with a belief in themselves that I’m not sure the Banditos’ pair is sportin’. Again, I think both Bandits backstops are stellar and have been clutch throughout the year, but I just haven’t seen it from them in Buffalo’s two playoff wins. I think both Jax tenders are walkin’ into the HSBC on Saturday with the mental game already won. There’ll be no second guessing themselves and that level of confidence will in-turn be instilled in every Jax player on the rug. When you see your keepers churn-out the kinda games both Dish and Dallas have, you have no choice but to play with that same level of confidence and belief. Ask any player, it makes such a difference.

If Buffalo can get to either Dallas or Disher early, then I think they can bury ‘em and hold on. But if either keeper makes some outta their back pocket kinda save(s), which we’ve seen ‘em do a ton of times over the last two weeks, and hold Buffalo to only a couple goals over the first 15 minutes, I think the balls in Portland’s court and it’s their game to win. Like we’ve seen a number of times this year, Buffalo sometimes takes a period or even two to get in the game, I don’t think they have that luxury this weekend. If they start off slow or start second guessing themselves cuz of what the Jax tenders are doing, it might be another Bandits’ Champion’s Cup loss.

So… think I’ll stand on my own again this week and go with Portland. I’ll take the Jax 14-12 with Powell scoring four and Dallas (or Disher) taking MVP honours. Think there’s a difference between simply having guys step up versus players playing “playoff-ball”. I think Portland is playin’ “playoff-ball”.

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