NLL Insider

Will Matt Disher be ready for a potential lengthy post-season run in Portland again? (Photo: Matt J. Wiater)

We’re about a week-and-a-half away from this year’s National Lacrosse League post-season being let off the leash.

So, over the next ten days, NLL Insider plans on bringin’ you some pre-playoff coverage to get you prepared for a ’second season’ that should be as unpredictable as ever.

Today, after the jump, check out why or why not teams in the West could win this year’s title, and then check back next Wednesday for our Eastern Division breakdown.

Calgary Roughnecks

(12-4 overall record, 9-2 divisional record)

Why they’ll win
Calgary’s high paced, equally high impact D is playing a style that has posed a lot of problems for almost any team they’ve played this year. It’s also a system that has seen both Matt King and Pat Campbell thrive, and especially for King, resurrect a pro career some thought was past him. It’s the same system that allowed the Buffalo Bandits to win last year’s title too. Their offense is deadly, but their D system is what’s allowed them to dominate the NLL this year. Andrew McBride, Jeff Moleski and Mike Carnegie were all good enough this year to get mentions for Defender of the Year nods.

Why they’ll lose
Although their offense is lethal, their scoring this season has been heavily reliant on the power-play. The Necks had practically double the amount of man-up chances compared to a team like Toronto (Rock 62 opportunities, Roughnecks 113 opportunities) and have crippled teams if they take too many trips to the box this year. Dane Dobbie, Curt Malawsky, Kaleb Toth and Josh Sanderson are all within the league’s Top 10 PP goal scorers, while Shooter and Tracey Kelusky sit one-two in man-up helpers. If you can hold these guys in check five-on-five like Toronto did in their 12-10 win over the Necks (Rock only allowed two even strength goals), or keep them to three or less power-play goals like Portland did in their 11-9 win over the West regular season champs, that W is definitely within reach.

Make or break kinda guy
Two-way worker Jeff Shattler has proved again this year that he’s one of the most versatile guys in the bigs and although his offensive numbers were down in ‘09, he’s been solid in the Necks’ own end and ignites the press like few others. When he does score this year though, the Necks are usually pretty happy campers. When Shattler posted four points this year, the Roughnecks were 4-0. When he was held scoreless, Calgary went just 1-3. Teams will want to make sure they know where Jeff is 24/7 and keep him from running that press straight through their cage.

Portland Lumberjax

(9-7 overall record, 7-6 divisional record)

Why they’ll win
As good as their D has played this year and as good as D-first two-way studs like Brodie Merrill and Scott Stewart have been, the Jax will likely only go as far as Matt Disher will take them. Many seem to be forgetting how clutch Disher played during the first half of the year, previous to an insane series of bye weeks and some nagging injury issues of late that have kept him on the sidelines. Matt Flindell has actually been really impressive in his relief of Disher, but come playoff time, it’ll likely be Disher or bust for the Jax. With the way he’s been playing this year, bust likely won’t be part of his vocab in a couple weeks. Portland would need a Patrick Roy like performance from either Flindell or Joel Weber if Disher goes down (specifcally talkin’ about #8 via that link).

Why they’ll lose
Unlike Calgary, Portland’s power-play is one of the worst in the NLL this year and they’ve done most of their work when everyone on both sides are on the rug. As NLL Insider has shown in a series of special teams related articles this year, power-play scoring in today’s game is a must for success. Without some additional support from their special teams, the Jax could have a tough time inching out those likely close post-season wins without them.

Make or break kinda guy
Although Dan Dawson caught a ton of praise for his scoring and O leadership for the Jax in last year’s playoff run, Ryan Powell was potentially just as important to this team and was one of 2008’s most clutch post-season performers. Powell has turned up the heat and is scoring some big goals for the Jax down the stretch again this year and will no doubt be an impact guy for Portland in a couple weeks.  

San Jose Stealth

(7-9 overall record, 6-6 divisional record)

Why they’ll win
The Stealth may be younger than ever this year, but the vet leadership they get from arguably the sport’s greatest post-season performer, Colin Doyle, is irreplaceable. His three playoff MVP nods are not only the highest total for a single player in the NLL, it’s one of the best playoff resume bullets anywhere in pro sports. Doyle’s leadership and almost record breaking skills this year were a big reason why the Stealth came outta nowhere to shore up the #3 spot in the West. A month before that clinch, few woulda guessed San Jose was even playoff bound. If Doyle goes-off during the ’second season’ this year, even if the opposition is clickin’, there may be no stopping the Stealth.

Why they’ll lose
Did the Stealth peak too early? Their explosive last third of the regular season was one of this year’s great storylines, but after dropping a huge early lead to the Rock last weekend, the wind in their sales definitely seemed to have died down. Rookie keeper Tyler Richards, who was sensational down the stretch, got yanked in Toronto, and although Richards or Matt Roik are more than capable of being as clutch as they were in New West last summer, unlike the CLA playoffs (seven games series), sometimes it’s tough in the NLL to simply flip the switch and get that momentum back in a one-and-your-done kinda game. Was it too much too soon in the Stealth camp?

Make or break kinda guy
Although his numbers dipped quite a bit this year versus last year’s 90-point season, Jeff Zywicki has been one of the Stealth’s biggest post-season performers since going pro almost four years ago. Although a loss, Zywicki scored four and assisted on three others in the Stealth’s high scoring 18-16 loss to the Jax last year. As a pro soph in 2007, Zywicki was huge again for San Jose, scoring eight as the Stealth were just a pair of goals short from heading to their first NLL finale. He may have scored 16 fewer during the season this year, but obviously Jeff has the ability to do big things when it matters most.

Colorado Mammoth

(7-9 overall record, 6-7 divisional record)

Why they’ll win
Although they’re not doing it in as dramatic fashion during the regular season like the Bandits last year, the Mammoth are building some insane confidence and ability to win when they’re backs are up against the wall, facing a string of injuries that has seen the likes of Dan Carey, Gee Nash, Jim Moss, Nenad Gajic, Bruce Murray and others on the sidelines for either part of or the entire season. And apparently defenders Rich Catton (knee, might see playoff action) and Ray Guze (hand, although he might be back in time for Calgary) are on the shelf after last weekend’s huge win over the Rush. Chemistry may continue being an issue at times for the Mammoth’s ever changing roster, but when you pull off a win like they did against Edmonton (yes, even after going 0-4 previous to that win) and few expect much from you in the first round, that’s when a wounded beast like the Elephants are at their most dangerous. Keep poking them, and they’re liable to tear your head off. Colorado’s post-season started last weekend and they may already be in a zone others will still be building towards in Game 1.

Why they’ll lose
There’s a fine line between doing everything in your power and pulling out a huge W when the chips are down & having absolutely zero chemistry and playing frustrated en route to the L word (unfortunately we’re not talking Showtime here). The Mammoth have found themselves in both situations this year and their success in this year’s post-season will rely almost solely on their approach to each game and the attitude they bring with them. No doubt everyone on that team wants to win, but will they able to adapt and continue doing what they did late against the Rush last weekend, during the entire post-season? Four conesecutive wins on heart alone is a tough repeat performance to pull off.

Make or break kinda guy(s)
The Mammoth’s success will also be strongly dictated on the play they get in goal from two guys that not so long ago were cut loose by their previous pro clubs. At times, Andrew Leyshon has been Keeper of the Year kinda material, while Curtis Palidwor showed he’s still very much a relevant tender at this level (see win over Minnesota in mid-March). With arguably one of this year’s best defensive units playing in front of either of these guys, they could prove too much for even the Roughnecks in the first round (see Leyshon’s Valentine’s Day show stopping performance in a 13-12 win over Calgary).

Check back next Wednesday for a complete breakdown of the East, and make sure to check in daily for more 2009 NLL playoff primer at NLL Insider.

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