NLL Insider

Welcome to the 2009 NLL Guess-O-Matic 3000 Play-off simulator. After countless hours studying stats, tables, weather patterns, tarot cards, cumulative zodiac signs and a little eye of newt we have been able to establish the winners of the opening round of the 2009 post season. We ran the numbers through the machine and it spit out a match by match score line until there was only one left standing. Let’s have a peak at what’s to come in the next few weeks. —– If you don’t want to know who takes the next step to hoisting this year’s Champions’ Cup, avert your eyes….

Rochester (4) @ New York (1)

• - The Hawks come into the play-offs as one of the most dangerous teams in the second season of 2009 as they have been fighting for their play-off lives since week 4. Sure they may have only won once in their last four matchups but they have plenty of experience in their line-up and the recent play of team MVP Pat O’Toole could be a huge factor against the Titans.
• - Winners of their last three games that allowed them to steal the East Division away from Buffalo, New York has been one of the most consistent teams in the league this year. Led by possible league MVP, Casey Powell, the Titans are lethal all over the floor and it’s evident in the fact that they had 5 players who tallied 25 G’s and 20 A’s. Add into that equation the very mobile and athletic defense that is anchored by the likes of Jarret Park, Matt Alrich, Patrick Merril and rook sensation Stephen Peyser. As much of an equalizer as O’Toole is, Matt Vinc is colossal in the net! Logging the most minutes by any keeper this year Vinc is primed and poised to lead the Titans to the Championships

RESULT – New York won the series by winning two of the three games; but the Guess-O-Matic 3000 still almost burnt out calculating this game.  The deciding factor on this one came down to the pure power and force and the Titans flexed longer and harder in this eastern clash and came out with a 17-12 victory in front of a very invisible 3200 fans at MSG (most of whom will be dressed in Knighthawk Teal).

San Jose (3) @ Portland (2)

• - The Stealth come in to the Rose Garden as the #3 seed and are very lucky to have gotten there. At one point in the season they were 3-7 and many had written them off completely. Then Captain Colin Doyle called the team out and WHAM— a crucial 11-10 win over the Rush turned the ship around and they end up winning four of their last 6 and become one of the hottest teams in the league. The emergence of Tyler Richards as a legit #1 tender helped propel the team when goalie Matt Roik was on the bench. The Stealth ship is captained by scoring leader, Doyle, and slick freshman Rhys Duch and the ever present Jeff Zywicki. The key for San Jose will be staying out of the box as they were the second most penalized team in 09.
• - Portland comes in as the two seed and is hoping the extra time off before their first round tilt will give MVP candidate Matt Disher ample time to heal some nagging injuries. Not that fresh faced Matt Flindel or Joel Weber can’t do an admirable job but it’s obvious that the Jax’ need a healthy and acrobatic Disher between the pipes to have a chance. The trees in the back end have caused offensive fits all year long but without the confidence of a proven NLL goalie behind them, the Jax’ defenders may have to work a little harder at keeping the lethal Stealth offense at bay. On the other side of the ball, Ryan Powell, Derek Malawsky and rising star Cory Conway will lead a potent attack that can do damage if they all play the team game and don’t hold onto the ball too long.

RESULT- Two athletic west coast teams that love to run and push the tempo while focusing lots on clock management.  Portland won two of the three  contests between the two clubs. The Transition game of Portland will be on showcase all night long as the likes of Brodie Merril, Scott Stewart, Tyler Codron and Matt Yaeger will be all over the carpet from bell to bell. But when choosing a winner the Guess-O-Matic 3000 gave the decisive advantage to the  Jax solely basd on the stat that they have been to the big dance and have the hunger to get back there again! An empty netter by Merril seals the victory in front of a boisterous plaid platoon.

Boston (3) @ Buffalo (2)

                -Could you have asked for a better finish between these two teams? In the final three weeks of the season they played each other twice, both stealing away wins. The defending champs won’t be too happy with the way they ended the season and I’m sure coach Darris Kilgour has pounded the fact that they let first place fall from their grip with a poor fourth quarter in the 16^th game of the season. Conversely I’m sure Tom Ryan is more than ecstatic with the recent play of his Blazers in the final half of the season. These two teams feature very potent attacks and are each lead by a two-headed monster; Steenhuis/Tavares in Buffalo and Dawson/Veltman in Boston.  Big aggressive defenses man the back end for both squads and the goal tending battle is also a dead heat with Montour and Cosmo sporting two of the best GAA in the league.  There really isn’t much separating these two teams and it’s obvious that they are very well matched. So what will be the deciding factor in this game? The X-factor— EXPERIENCE – 32 shiny rings in the Bandits locker-room vs. 4 rings (two on the hand of Cosmo) for the Blazers. Sure rings don’t mean much when you have to leave them in the locker-room but having played in the big game and won it gives the Bandit players a little bit of confidence.

RESULT- The Guess-o-Matic had a tough time deciding this game as well. It took into account that Boston won the last meeting; also depth was a huge tallying factor in the game, as the secondary guys will play a big role for the victor. But ultimately the crowd at the HSBC arena will push their boys through a tough battle and take them one step further from golf T-E-E and one step closer to the Champions C-U-P. Bandits win a shootout 17-15.

Colorado (4) @ Calgary (1)

                -With Colorado sneaking their way into the post season with some very inspired play, you have to like their chances as they play the ultimate underdog in this, on paper, seemingly mismatched Western tilt.  Battling through multiple injuries that have seen them loose some of their top defensemen, Bob McMahon’s Elephants have stuck to their guns and gritted their teeth through a long and arduous schedule that saw then moving up and down all season long. If they had been healthy all year, Colorado definitely would have been pressing the Roughnecks for top spot in the West as per usual. 

-Speaking of those Roughnecks, how unreal did they play this year? From their game one victory of San Jose, to a huge OT win over their Alberta rivals, through to their 12-9 win against Portland in the season ender, Calgary has been head and shoulders above everyone else. Hardnosed, aggressive, in your face and tenacious…. And that’s just coach Troy Cordingly! But what can be said about a team that emulates their coach’s fiery passion like the Riggers do? With a fantastic balance of veteran leadership, unrelenting youth, and two goalies that have, together, climbed to the top of the mountain; this team is as complete as they come.  Matt King and Pat Campbell have both been two of the best guys coming off the bench for a team and now they are both shining as co number 1 goalies in Calgary and are having career best years. Hell King had 8 assists this year! (Tied for most pts by a goalie with Pat O’Toole).

RESULT- Splitting the season series doesn’t do much to differentiate between the two teams as they played fairly early on. This game will come down to one simple fact- Can Colorado keep up with Calgary. If they can, they have a huge opportunity but if the ‘Necks can control the tempo and slowly pull away, then the night could be over long before it starts. The Guess-o-Matic opted for the later and has Calgary winning 16-11 in the last semi final match-up of the weekend.

 We’ll be all set for Divisional final weekend with Calgary hosting Portland and New York hosting Buffalo. Sure the Guess-o-Matic 3000 didn’t pick any upsets and went with the obvious choices, but hey, that’s how it tabulated the information and the stats. I just punched the information in and this is what it spewed out…

Play on and Battle Hard Boys… Three more wins and you will have one more ring that I do!

Jenner is a two-time Mann Cup champion with six years of NLL experience. Email him at ted.jenner@nllinsider.com also follow the Coquitlam Jr. A Adanacs and the Intermediate A Adanacs live, as Teddy brings you color commentary with Brad Challoner for the Jr's and play by play with Brody Allen for the Intermediates -- http://www.junioradanacs.com/multimedia.php

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