NLL Insider

What are Calgary's chances of making the playoffs and defending their 2009 NLL title? (Photo: Larry Palumbo)

Got a big rematch Saturday night in this 11th week of National Lacrosse League action when the Orlando Titans host the Calgary Roughnecks. It’s a rematch of last year’s Champion’s Cup game, which Calgary won by a 12-10 mark. So as the second half of the 2010 season starts to make the turn toward the stretch, it kinda gets ya to wondering just who’s gonna be there for this year’s title game. There are so many variables that can’t be quantified, but one thing we can do is make a call based on recent history. So let’s take a look at each team’s remaining schedule, crunch some numbers and figure out who has the best chance, or no chance at all, of qualifying for this year’s postseason party.

So here’s what we’ve done. For each team, we’ll look at what’s left on their schedule. How many games. How many on the road and how many at home. You’ve also gotta factor in back-to-back weekends, where teams play 2 games in 2 days, ’cause that can make a difference with jello legs and bumps and bruises, especially in tight races. The East is no exception with 5 teams within 2 games of each other. In the West, the top 4 teams are within 2.5 games of each other.

After checking out the remaining schedule, we’ve figured out how each team has done this season against what’s left on their schedule. Three of the staffers here at NLLInsider.com, Paul Tutka, Ted Jenner and yours truly then offer a playoff possibility grade on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the strongest likelihood of making the playoffs. So the closer your team’s score is to 30, the stronger we think their chances are of making the playoffs.

Thing is, it wasn’t more than 4 or 5 weeks ago where the playoff picture was looking pretty predictable. Washington’s 6-0 start and Toronto’s 6-1 start looked like playoff locks, while Buffalo’s 1-6 start and Calgary’s 1-3 start gave the impression that the 2010 seasons might be lost seasons for those clubs. Next thing ya know, the Stealth lose 3 straight. The Rock lose 4 straight. Buffalo and Calgary are 4-1 in their last 5 and now the playoff picture isn’t so clear, is it?

OK. Enough chit chat. Let’s take an alphabetical look at what’s up with each team, remembering that the Orlando Titans and Philadelphia Wings still have a game to make up since their Feb. 6 game got punked by a snowstorm. The game will definitely be rescheduled no matter what the playoff positioning looks like and sources indicate the game will most likely be rescheduled “on or close to the final weekend of the regular season,” which is April 23 and 24.

Boston Blazers (5-5 record, tied for 3rd in the East Division)

@ Edmonton: (0-0 this season)
@Philadelphia: (1 win, 1 loss this season)
vs. Orlando: (2-0)
vs. Minnesota: (0-0)
@ Colorado: (0-0)
@ Buffalo: (0-1)
Totals: 6 games left, 4 on the road and 2 at home.
Pros and cons: Boston is 4-2 vs. remaining opponents … team is 2-0 vs. East leader Orlando … 4 of 6 remaining games are on the road … 0 back-to-back weekends left … Jenner’s grade: 8. Tutka’s grade: 7. Chavez’s grade: 9.
TOTAL: 24.

Buffalo Bandits (5-6 record, 5th in the East Division)

@ Rochester: (0-2)
vs. Colorado: (0-0)
vs. Toronto: (1-1)
@ Orlando: (1-0)
vs. Boston: (1-0)
Totals: 5 games left, 2 on the road and 3 at home.
Pros and cons: Buffalo is 3-2 vs. remaining opponents … 3 of final 5 games at home … team is 0-2 vs. Rochester … 0 back-to-back weekends left … depending on result vs. Rochester in next game, Buffalo’s playoff season could start with 3 weeks left in regular season as final 3 games are against East foes … Jenner’s grade: 9. Tutka’s grade: 7. Chavez’s grade: 7.
TOTAL: 23.

Calgary Roughnecks (5-4, 3rd in West Division)

@ Orlando: (0-0)
vs. Minnesota: (1-1)
@ Toronto: (1-0)
@ Rochester: (0-0)
vs. Colorado: (0-0)
@ Edmonton: (1-1)
@ Colorado: (0-0)
Totals: 7 games left, 5 on the road and 2 at home.
Pros and cons: Calgary is 3-2 vs. remaining opponents … 1 back-to-back weekend with April 2 game at Toronto and April 3 game at Rochester … 5 of remaining 7 games are on the road … team already lost season series to West leader Washington (1-2) … final 2 games on the road against West foes … Jenner’s grade: 10. Tutka’s grade: 9. Chavez’s grade: 10.
TOTAL: 29.

Colorado Mammoth (2-7, 5th in West Division)

vs. Washington: (0-2)
@ Washington: (0-2)
@ Buffalo: (0-0)
@ Edmonton: (0-2)
@ Calgary: (0-0)
vs. Boston: (0-0)
vs. Calgary: (0-0)
Totals: 7 games left, 4 on the road and 3 at home.
Pros and cons: Colorado is 0-4 vs. remaining opponents … 2 back-to-back weekends, with just 1 of those 4 games at home … first back-to-back weekend is at home vs. Washington on March 26, then at Washington on March 27 … Second back-to-back weekend is at Edmonton on April 9 and at Calgary on April 10 … Jenner’s grade: 2. Tutka’s grade: 3. Chavez’s grade: 3.
TOTAL: 8

Edmonton Rush (6-3, 2nd in West Division)

vs. Boston: (0-0)
vs. Minnesota: (0-0)
vs. Washington: (0-1)
@ Minnesota: (0-0)
vs. Colorado: (2-0)
vs. Calgary: (1-1)
@ Washington: (0-1)
Totals: 7 games left, 2 on the road and 5 at home.
Pros and cons: Edmonton is 3-2 vs. remaining opponents … 2 back-to-back weekends with April 2 game at home vs. Washington and April 3 game at Minnesota … Close regular season with April 16 game at home vs. Calgary and April 17 game at Washington … 5 of remaining 7 games are against West foes … Jenner’s grade: 10. Tutka’s grade: 8. Chavez’s grade: 8.
TOTAL: 26.

Minnesota Swarm (4-5, 4th in West Division)

@ Calgary: (1-1)
@ Edmonton: (0-0)
vs. Edmonton: (0-0)
vs. Rochester: (0-0)
@ Boston: (0-0)
vs. Philadelphia: (0-1)
vs. Orlando: (0-0)
Totals: 7 games left, with 3 on the road and 4 at home.
Pros and cons: Minnesota is 1-2 vs. remining opponents … 2 back-to-back weekends with March 26 game at Calgary and March 27 road game at Edmonton … April 9 game at home vs. Rochester and April 10 game at Boston … only 3 games left vs. West foes … 4 of final 5 games at home … Jenner’s grade: 8. Tutka’s grade: 6. Chavez’s grade: 7.
TOTAL: 21.

Orlando Titans (6-3, 1st in East Division)

vs. Calgary: (0-0)
vs. Toronto: (1-0)
@ Boston: (0-2)
vs. Washington: (0-0)
vs. Buffalo: (0-1)
@ Minnesota: (0-0)
Totals: *7 games left, with 3 on the road and 4 at home.
Pros and cons: Orlando is 1-3 vs. remaining opponents … *Team still needs to reschedule postponed game vs. Philadelphia … 0 back-to-back weekends … Team is 0-2 vs. Boston … won season series with Rochester (2-0) … April 16 home game vs. Buffalo looms large … Jenner’s grade: 10. Tutka’s grade: 10. Chavez’s grade: 10.
TOTAL: 30.

Philadelphia Wings (3-8, 6th in East Division)

vs. Boston: (1-1)
vs. Toronto: (1-0)
@ Rochester: (0-1)
@ Minnesota: (1-0)
Totals: *5 games left, with 2 on the road and 3 at home.
Pros and cons: Philadelphia is 3-2 vs. remaining opponents … *Team still needs to reschedule postponed game vs. Orlando … 0 back-to-back weekends left, unless the game vs. Orlando is tacked on to an existing weekend … Team is 2-2 vs. East foes, including a 1-0 mark vs. Toronto … Jenner’s grade: 5. Tutka’s grade: 4. Chavez’s grade: 4.
TOTAL: 13.

Rochester Knighthawks (5-5, tied for 3rd in East Division)

vs. Buffalo: (2-0)
vs. Calgary: (0-0)
@ Minnesota: (0-0)
vs. Philadelphia: (1-0)
@ Toronto: (1-1)
@ Washington: (0-0)
Totals: 6 games left with 3 on road and 3 at home.
Pros and cons: Rochester is 4-1 vs. remaining opponents … Team already has won season series with Buffalo (2-0), so April 16 game at Toronto looms large … Tough road game to close season at West-leading Washington … 1 back-to-back weekend remaining with April 9 game at Minnesota and April 10 game at home vs. Philadelphia … Jenner’s grade: 7. Tutka’s grade: 6. Chavez’s grade: 7.
Totals: 20.

Toronto Rock (6-5, 2nd in East Division)

@ Orlando: (0-1)
vs. Calgary: (0-1)
@ Philadelphia: (1-0)
@ Buffalo: (1-1)
vs. Rochester: (1-1)
Totals: 5 games left, 3 on the road and 2 at home.
Pros and cons: Toronto is 3-4 vs. remaining opponents … 1 back-to-back weekend remaining, with an April 2 game at home vs. Calgary and an April 3 game at Philadelphia … Final games of regular season could be huge as Rock are 1-1 against Bandits and Knighthawks … Jenner’s grade: 10. Tutka’s grade: 8. Chavez’s grade: 8.
TOTAL: 26.

Washington Stealth (7-3, 1st in West Division)

@ Colorado: (2-0)
vs. Colorado: (2-0)
@ Edmonton: (1-0)
@ Orlando: (0-0)
vs. Edmonton: (1-0)
vs. Rochester: (0-0)
Totals: 6 games left, 3 on the road and 3 at home.
Pros and cons: Washington is 4-0 vs. remaining opponents … 1 back-to-back weekend remaining with March 26 game at Colorado and March 27 game at home vs. Colorado … 4 of final 6 games are vs. West foes and 2 of those games are at home … 2 games left vs. 2nd-place Edmonton and Stealth already are 1-0 vs. Rush … Jenner’s grade: 10. Tutka’s grade: 10. Chavez’s grade: 10.
TOTAL: 30.

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